Day before Thanksgiving-- what better time to write a post about something still 34 months (give or take) away, that being the Democratic primary for Maryland Governor?
So, a leading candidate in the primary is a Generation X white male-- photogenic, tenegenic, athletic, well-educated background, fast riser in Maryland politics, and currently an officeholder in a very prominent executive capacity. And very capable in their job-- capability that may only be exceeded by their ambition. Who am I referring to? Howard County Executive Ken Ulman or Maryland Attorney General Doug Gansler?
Trick question! I could be referring to either. And therein lies the problem.
Both Ulman and Gansler are "that guy" among the leading Democratic candidates for Maryland Governor. For my money, Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown is "that guy" too, except he's black and a veteran. Two important distinguishing characteristics in a Democratic primary where every vote is going to count.
State Comptroller Peter Franchot is most definitely not "that guy". He's older and, for my money, much more liberal than any of the other three candidates I just mentioned. And he is extremely high profile, thanks to his position on the State Board of Public Works. If the election were held today, I'd consider it a close call between Brown and Franchot, with Gansler and Ulman a step behind.
But the election is in 34 months and there are political lifetimes to be lived between now and then. I truly feel that any of the four candidates I mentioned above can win the primary, depending on a lot of factors-- the state and local economies, campaign fundraising, choices for Lieutenant Governor, to name just a few. But how can the two candidates who seem the most cut from the same cloth differentiate themselves?
From Ulman's perspective-- a sound bet would be for him to make himself the candidate of the Baltimore area. There are currently no serious candidates for Governor from Baltimore City, County, or Anne Arundel or Harford Counties. Being from Howard allows Ulman the opportunity to be "that guy". There's a lot of campaign cash in Baltimore and a lot of support to cultivate. If he can carry the Baltimore area and the other three knock each other around in the DC suburbs, he can still rule the primary.
For Gansler, he has amassed a considerable campaign war chest-- he would do well to use some. He will wind up splitting Montgomery County with Franchot, so he will have to scrounge for primary votes in every corner of the state. And while again, that would suggest the drive up 95, Baltimore voters have always been skeptical of candidates from Montgomery and Prince Georges Counties. Glendening was a bit of an exception of that because of the unholy "slots for tots" deal made with then-Mayor Kurt Schmoke. But by and large, the average Baltimore voter doesn't go for candidates from areas outside of 695.
The Baltimore Beltway doesn't intersect Howard either, but the perception, politics and georgraphy match. Howard is closer to Baltimore City than Montgomery County is, any day of the week. Ken Ulman's primary hopes largely lie on convincing the 695 crowd that he can be a Governor who speaks for them.
Great column!
Posted by: David Bailey | December 04, 2011 at 12:03 AM